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The EDB Named the Reasons for the Acceleration of Inflation in Tajikistan

Over the past two months, the country has seen a sharp rise in prices.

Inflation in Tajikistan is accelerating under the influence of strong domestic demand, rising world energy prices and rising prices in Russia, Tajikistan’s main import supplier, the Eurasian Development Bank said in its October Macroeconomic Review.

The publication notes that inflation in the country increased to 4.2% in August from 2.3% in July. Price growth returned to the target range of the National Bank of Tajikistan – 6.0% (+/-2 percentage points).

It should be noted that inflation in the consumer sector of Tajikistan in August and September of this year, after moderate growth in previous months, sharply accelerated.

Consumer goods and services, according to the country’s statistical agency, rose in price by 0.6% in August, and 0.7% in September. Prior to this, in January-July the average monthly increase in prices and tariffs was 0.37%.

In September of this year, food products rose in price by 0.8%, non-food products – by 0.5%, paid services to the population – 0.6%.

Thus, the inflation rate for the nine months of this year reached 3.9%, which is 0.6 percentage points higher than the same period in 2022.

Meanwhile, World Bank economists, as well as EDB analysts, in their report published on October 6 this year, predict that inflation in Tajikistan will gradually increase and approach the NBT target level.

Meanwhile, economists at the Asian Development Bank expect a higher inflation rate this year – 7.0%.

They explain their forecast in the Asian Development Outlook by “a possible depreciation of the national currency combined with a weakening of the Russian ruble, a further increase in consumer lending, and increases in government salaries and pensions.”

Source: Asia Plus TJ